Preparedness Starts with Awareness: Important Lessons from Recent Disasters in the U.S.
This month, catastrophic flooding in Texas displaced thousands and destroyed homes—almost one year after wildfires in Maui wiped out an entire town in a single day. These disasters, though very different, share one thing in common: they were swift, overwhelming, and left little time to react.
The Black Swan Event
These disasters are categorized as what is known as a “Black Swan Event”. The term was coined in 2001 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a mathematician and risk analyst, to describe low probability, high impact outlier events. They come as a surprise, have major social and economic consequences, and are often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Taleb advocates for what he calls a “black swan robust” society; meaning a society that can withstand difficult to predict events. A resilient society.
Here on Cape Cod we often prepare for what we know is likely, like winter Nor’easters. Many of us own generators, flashlights, and extra batteries because those investments pay off every year. But what about the hazards that feel less likely—like a major hurricane? History and meteorology tell us hurricanes can and likely will happen here. The question is, do we believe it enough to prepare? A big storm on Cape Cod isn’t far-fetched—it’s just a matter of time. And as Texas and Hawaii have shown us, disasters can escalate fast.
One lofty goal of emergency preparedness is the extinction of the black swan, and this can be tricky business. Spending time, money, and manpower on likely scenarios is easy. Doing the same for rare, outlier occurrences is much harder, both from a government and individual perspective. For example, local and regional agencies work hard to coordinate during emergencies through the Barnstable County Regional Emergency Planning Committee (BCREPC). But no matter how strong the response network is, community resilience begins at home.
Situational Awareness Saves Lives
One important lesson from the Texas floods that should resonate is this: many residents were caught off guard when floodwater rose rapidly during pre-dawn hours. Something as simple as checking the weather before bed, enabling wireless emergency alerts on your phone, and heeding warnings can provide the time you need to act.
Preparedness Doesn’t Need to be Overwhelming
Further, many disaster survivors flee with nothing but the clothes on their backs. Imagine if every household had a simple “go kit” by the door—a gallon-sized bag containing copies of vital documents like IDs, health insurance cards, prescriptions, and banking information. It only takes a couple of hours to put together, but it can make recovery far easier if you need to leave in a hurry.
It doesn’t take much to give yourself an edge that could make all the difference. Start small:
- Visit www.ready.gov for checklists and tips.
- Turn on emergency alerts in your phone settings.
- Pick up an extra flashlight, batteries, or a gallon of water on your next shopping trip.
Every small step strengthens our ability to bounce back. And when everyone prepares, the whole community benefits—especially those who may not have the resources to do so themselves.
As we enter the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which typically occurs from mid-August through early September, take a moment to consider: if you had to leave home in 10 minutes (or even less), what would you need to make it to safety? Start building your plan today. One small step now could make all the difference later.
Resources
Hurricane Preparedness | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Hurricane Preparedness | Red Cross
