Barnstable County Finance Director Presents Long-Term Fiscal Forecast to County Commissioners
Report Highlights Financial Outlook and Guides FY2027 Budget Preparation
October 22, 2025 (Barnstable, MA) — At today’s regular meeting of the Barnstable County Board of Regional Commissioners, Finance Director Carol Coppola presented a ten-year fiscal forecast designed to evaluate current and future financial conditions and guide long-term policy decisions through FY2036.
The report presents a long-term analysis of Barnstable County’s fiscal outlook using multiple forecasting models, including regression analysis and weighted averages. It highlights fiscal challenges shared by many local governments, such as rising personnel costs, growing health-insurance and pension obligations, and the increasing need to fund long-term capital projects — including the County’s ongoing PFAS mitigation initiative aimed at addressing contamination and related infrastructure improvements.
On the revenue side, the forecast anticipates steady but moderate growth across most categories. County tax assessments and court-lease payments are projected to increase by approximately 2.5% annually, while investment income assumes a consistent $25 million balance earning about 3.25% each year. Registry of Deeds revenue — historically the County’s largest and most variable funding source — remains a key driver of overall fiscal performance.
The forecast projects expenditures to begin exceeding revenues in FY2028, reflecting trends driven largely by personnel costs — expected to grow by approximately 6% annually — and by increasing health-insurance and pension expenses. Personnel costs (salaries and fringe) account for about 67% of total expenditures. The model also incorporates a potential $45 million borrowing for PFAS mitigation, with repayment anticipated to begin in 2030, the year in which the 10% debt-service benchmark is projected to be exceeded. These projections underscore the importance of ongoing fiscal planning and prudent resource management.
“We need to know what’s coming before us… we need to be able to plan. And now we have a planning document,” said Finance Director Carol Coppola. “These trends are not unique to Barnstable County—they’re reflective of what cities, towns, and counties across Massachusetts are experiencing.”
Commissioners discussed next steps to maintain structural balance, including providing an overall annual revenue-growth figure for planning, advancing an IT services rate study in FY2027 with implementation in FY2028, sequencing major capital projects, and developing a multi-year plan that sizes operating adjustments needed to accommodate future debt service.
“We can meet this moment with steady planning and clear priorities,” said Chair Sheila Lyons. “The choices ahead won’t be easy, but with discipline and foresight, we can keep Barnstable County on solid financial footing.”
The fiscal forecast will help inform upcoming budget-planning discussions for FY2027.
About Barnstable County Regional Government of Cape Cod: Barnstable County provides exemplary government functions and services to keep our community healthy and safe, promote sustainable growth, and offers a proactive, open government that enhances the quality of life for the citizens of Barnstable County. Learn more at www.capecod.gov.
